Europe must be at the wheel

Thoughts and Advice on Negotiations

A universal principle if you want to get your way as a negotiator: make sure you are always in the driver's seat. Drive the negotiation and don't let others do it.

Taking the lead is something Putin has always been clear about. And how does he do it? His eagerness to impose his agenda by making the discussion revolve around his demands; starting with conflict and blockade rather than diplomacy; meticulously preparing the tactical aspects of the negotiation and having a "play to win" mentality are some of the behaviors that have brought him to a leadership position in his relationship with the rest of Europe.

If we analyze each of the points I have just made:

• Generating the negotiation agenda is a tactical weapon. It allows you to take the lead by being the first to anchor your narrative and your demands and thus influence the thinking of the other negotiating parties. Leading with your demands helps you to ensure that the other party's proposals are limited to countering your own.

• Starting with a major conflict, with high tension and deadlock, can generate significant benefits. Human beings tend to want to avoid conflict and seek common ground because their aversion to risk is much greater than their desire to win. However, conflict can greatly favor the party who generates it and is comfortable in it, since it locks the parties involved in a relationship of enormous interdependence: everyone is in the same boat and forced to find solutions (often concessions made by the party with more pressure).

• Preparing the negotiation at the tactical level is key to take control. Specify what we are going to say or do, how we are going to say it to (with what tone, words, gestures), where (at a huge table facing each other, or at a press conference with images of tanks), when, etc. The human being always reacts emotionally first and then seeks to rationalize the decisions he has made under the effects of emotionality. Putin knows how to sharpen emotional reactions using elements such as theatricality: the long, white, distant table with Macron, or the way he ignores the EU institution by sending individualized communiqués to each member country.

• Having a winning mentality rather than a bottom-line mentality allows you to lead with your initiatives, plans and strategies rather than reacting to those of the other party.

• Finally, have a well-defined strategy. In this case Putin's strategy is Evasion (the 5 classic Harvard strategies in conflict negotiation are: collaborate, compete, compromise, avoid and give in). His attitude is: "I don't care what you have to say or do, I ignore it and go on with my agenda".

What can Europe do?

The situation is complex because there is high co-dependence, low trust and a lot of tension. However, there are things that the EU can consider increasing its negotiating strength and ensure that it is Europe that is in the driver's seat, leading the negotiation.

1. Have a clear negotiating team with designated and coordinated roles. A team composed of 2 or 3 European leaders selected as having the best profile for that negotiating role and very importantly, supported by expert negotiators who can help define and develop the strategic and tactical plan.

2. Set ambitious, clear, realistic and proactive (not reactive) goals. That is, objectives on what Europe wants to get from Russia in the short, medium and long term. European objectives should NOT be focused on countering Putin's current demands. The objectives must be very well fixed (and anchored in the heads of the European negotiators) as they must never be changed once the negotiation has started, or they will lose the "driver's seat".

3. Prepare a big list of demands that also includes irrational demands and focus on them to frame the negotiation. Russia has been repeating its demands for months: that Ukraine should not be part of NATO and should not receive armaments, that NATO should withdraw troops from the countries that joined from 1997, i.e., Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, etc. Europe should think about its own demands, what are the interests of the EU towards Russia in such areas as military security, cybersecurity, energy, and should generate demands of different categories: rational, irrational, urgent, necessary, aspirational.

4. Lead with an agenda of their own and do not agree to meet according to Putin's premises. In other words, look for neutral and media-free sites and make it very clear that the EU does not make concessions in form. Putin's theatrical situations in Moscow only benefit him. It is key to take control of the counterpart and not let him get away with anything no matter how small it may seem.

5. Do not show desperation for the dialogue. Europe must not only project a leadership position but believe it. Responding firmly, directly and unemotionally to Russian threats is essential. Putin is in a weaker position than he has been in the past, with a declining economy, an aging population and a middle class that has lost purchasing power in recent years. In addition, his high dependence on the EU at the trade level makes him more vulnerable than we are made to perceive.

6. To have a defined and agreed strategy. To the strategy of evasion and "deaf ears", what is EU's strategy? To dialogue, to sanction, to threats? It is complicated to generate a common European strategy when there are so many parties involved, but it is key to devote much more time to decide and specify the long-term strategy in the relationship with Russia. So far, the European strategy led by Germany has been low-key, investing heavily in strengthening relations with Russia rather than focusing on actions. Over the past decades, as John Lough analyzes in his book Germany's Russia Problem, Germany has been focused on trying to redefine EU policies with Russia rather than taking the initiative.

We are living a key chapter in Europe's history. Russia has positioned itself strongly on the European agenda through its threat to invade Ukraine in order to regain part of its sphere of influence. Putin sees the EU as a strategic competitor rather than an ally, there is no agreement on the most basic principles and trust between the two is nil. Much remains to be done! Europe must create a strategic and tactical plan to redefine its relationship with Russia and must adopt a “play to win” mentality that puts her in the driver's seat.